1 Introduction 1

The Concept of Currency Conflict 2

Historical Background 3

Recent Developments: Renewal of Currency Conflict 7

Plan of the Book 14

2 Key Conceptual Issues 17

The Trade Balance and the Current Account Balance 18

Economic Policies and the Current Account Balance 33

3 Norms for Current Account Balances 47

Current Account Imbalances: The Good and the Bad 48

Currency Policies: Legitimate and Illegitimate 63

4 The “Decade of Manipulation” (2003–13) 69

Currency Aggressors of the Early 21st Century 70

What Constitutes Manipulation? 76

Impacts of Manipulation 86

Recent Developments and Outlook 116

Appendix 4A Public Saving of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues 123

5 Policy Options 129

Macroeconomic/Monetary versus Trade Policy 129

Multilateral versus Unilateral Action 130

Markets to the Rescue? 131

Specific Alternatives 133

Private Diplomacy 133

Mobilization of the International Monetary Fund 138

Reform of the International Monetary Fund 140

Mobilization of the World Trade Organization 143

Inclusion of Currency Issues in Future Trade Agreements 145

Changes in Fiscal Policy 154

Changes in Monetary Policy 155

Use of Countervailing Currency Intervention 156

Imposition of Capital Controls 162

Imposition of Unilateral Import Controls 163

Conclusion 167

6 Conclusions and Recommendations 169

The Currency Problem 169

Self-Insurance versus Manipulation 177

Offensive versus Defensive Intervention 178

The Special Case of Key Currency Countries 179

Rules versus (Lack of) Enforcement 182

Currency Policy and Trade Policy 186

A Proposed Strategy for the United States 186

Multilateralizing the Strategy 192

Currency Conflict and Foreign Policy 196

Conclusion 199

Appendix A Data Sources and Annual Data on 201

Currency Manipulation

References 221

Index 229

Tables

2.1 What moves the current account balance? 27

3.1 The costs of financial crises 52

4.1 Official assets and net official flows of currency manipulators, 72

2003–13

4.2 Net official flows of currency manipulators, 2000–15 73

4.3 Excess currency manipulation, 2000–15 74

4.4 Alternative official asset metric for mature market economies, 83

2014

4.5 Currency manipulators, 2015–16 119

4.6 Recent and projected current account imbalances in selected 121

economies

4A.1 Fraction of resource production to save (s) with shared benefits 125

strategy

4A.2 Net official flows in Angola, Norway, and Saudi Arabia, 127

2012–20

5.1 The policy matrix 131

5.2 A reference rate system 141

A.1 Net official stocks, net official flows, and the current account 208

balance of currency manipulators, 2000–16

Figures

2.1 Current account and policy variables in Norway, 1993–2015 33

2.2 Current accounts in major quantitative easing episodes, 2004–15 35

2.3 Actual and hypothetical current account balances, 2007 39

2.4 Correlation between average current account balances and tariff 43

rates, 2003–14

3.1 Frequency distribution of net international investment position/ 57

GDP, 2014

3.2 Sustainability analysis for four debtor countries, 1995–2014 59

3.3 Sustainability analysis for four creditor countries, 1995–2014 62

4.1 External accounts of surplus countries, 1980–2015 71

4.2 Effect of ending currency manipulation on current accounts of 89

selected economies, 2003–13

4.3 China’s external accounts and real effective exchange rate, 97

2000–16

4.4 GDP growth and consumer price inflation rates in China, 98

1995–2016

4.5 General government budget balance in China as percent of GDP, 99

1995–2016

4.6 Three-month interbank rates in China and the United States, 100

1995–2016

4.7 Japan’s external accounts and real effective exchange rate, 101

2000–16

4.8 Macroeconomic indicators in Japan, 1995–2016 102

4.9 Financial indicators in Japan, 1995–2016 103

4.10 Korea’s external accounts and real effective exchange rate, 105

2000–16

4.11 Macroeconomic indicators in Korea, 1995–2016 106

4.12 Financial indicators in Korea, 1995–2016 107

4.13 Switzerland’s external accounts and real effective exchange rate, 109

2000–16

4.14 Macroeconomic indicators in Switzerland, 1995–2016 110

4.15 Financial indicators in Switzerland, 1995–2016 112

4.16 Singapore’s external accounts and real effective exchange rate, 114

2000–16

4.17 Macroeconomic indicators in Singapore, 1995–2016 115

4.18 Financial indicators in Singapore, 1995–2016 117

4A.1 Alternative scenarios for allocating resource wealth over time 124

Boxes

2.1 A stylized model of the macroeconomy 21

2.2 Sterilized and unsterilized intervention 37

2.3 Germany and the euro area 45

4.1 The US Treasury’s new criteria for enhanced analysis of 78

exchange rates

5.1 Adding currency to trade agreements 146

5.2 Would countervailing currency intervention by the 158

United States against China in 2005

1简介1

货币冲突的概念2

历史背景3

最新动态：货币冲突的延续7

书的计划14

2关键概念问题17

贸易余额和经常账户余额18

经济政策与经常账户余额33

3经常账户余额规范47

经常账户失衡：好与坏48

货币政策：合法和非法63

4“操纵十年”（2003-13）69

21世纪初的货币侵略者70

什么构成操纵？ 76

操纵的影响86

最新发展与展望116

附录4A公共储蓄不可再生资源收入123

5政策选择129

宏观经济/货币政策与贸易政策129

多边行动与单边行动130

抢救市场？ 131

具体的选择133

私人外交133

动员国际货币基金组织138

国际货币基金组织改革140

动员世界贸易组织143

145在未来贸易协定中包括货币发行

财政政策的变化154

货币政策变化155

使用反补贴货币干预156

实行资本管制162

实施单方面进口管制163

结论167

6结论和建议169

货币问题169

自我保险与操纵177

进攻与防守干预178

主要货币国家的特殊情况179

规则与（缺乏）执行182

货币政策和贸易政策186

美国的拟议战略186

多边化战略192

货币冲突与外交政策196

结论199

附录A 201的数据来源和年度数据

货币操纵

参考文献221

索引229

桌子

2.1经常账户余额有何变化？ 27

3.1金融危机的代价52

4.1货币操纵者的官方资产和官方净流量，72

2003-13

4.2货币操纵者的官方净流量，2000-15 73

4.3过度货币操纵，2000-15 74

4.4成熟市场经济体的替代性官方资产度量标准，83

2014年

4.5货币操纵者，2015–16 119

4.6选定121中最近和预计的经常账户失衡

经济

4A.1节省资源并共享收益的资源产量的一部分125

战略

4A.2在安哥拉，挪威和沙特阿拉伯的官方净流量为12​​7

2012–20

5.1政策矩阵131

5.2参考汇率制度141

A.1官方净库存，官方净流量和经常账户208

货币操纵者的余额，2000–16年

数据

2.1 1993–2015年挪威的经常账户和政策变量33

2.2 2004-15年主要量化宽松事件中的经常账户35

2.3 2007年实际和假设的经常账户余额39

2.4平均经常账户余额与电价之间的相关性43

费率，2003–14

3.1净国际投资头寸的频率分布/ 57

2014年GDP

3.2 1995-2014年四个债务国的可持续性分析59

3.3 1995年至2014年对四个债权国的可持续性分析62

4.1 1980-2015年盈余国家的外部账户71

4.2终止货币操纵对经常账户的影响89

某些经济体，2003-13年

4.3中国的对外账户和实际有效汇率97

2000–16

4.4中国的GDP增长和居民消费价格上涨率98

1995–2016

4.5中国政府一般预算平衡占GDP的百分比99

1995–2016

4.6中美三个月银行同业拆借利率100

1995–2016

4.7日本的外部帐户和实际有效汇率，101

2000–16

4.8 1995-2016年日本的宏观经济指标102

4.9 1995-2016年日本的财务指标103

4.10韩国的对外帐户和实际有效汇率，105

2000–16

4.11 1995-2016年韩国宏观经济指标106

4.12 1995-2016年韩国的财务指标107

4.13瑞士的外部帐户和实际有效汇率，109

2000–16

4.14 1995-2016年瑞士的宏观经济指标110

4.15 1995-2016年瑞士的财务指标112

4.16新加坡的外部帐户和实际有效汇率114

2000–16

4.17 1995-2016年新加坡的宏观经济指标115

4.18 1995-2016年新加坡的财务指标117

4A.1随时间分配资源财富的替代方案124

盒子

2.1宏观经济的程式化模型21

2.2灭菌和未灭菌干预37

2.3德国与欧元区45

4.1美国财政部加强对78种商品的分析的新标准

汇率

5.1在贸易协定中添加货币146

5.2将抵消158的货币干预

2005年美国对中国