We are all familiar with metropolitan areas in which the central city, while gaining some high-rise buildings, has a stagnant population and an increasing proportion of poor people at the same time that the suburbs are growing and prosperous. To a degree, modern economics is like such a metropolitan area. Magnificent as we believe the skyscrapers at the center of economics are, in most American universities the number of economics majors has declined, the proportion of economics majors who go on to graduate work in the discipline has fallen, and the job market for those who have earned a doctorate in economics has tightened. In macroeconomics, no single paradigm has generated the professional consensus that characterizes successful science. In most parts of economics, contrary to popular belief, economists usually agree. Economic quackery nonetheless often commands more attention from, the press and the politicians than the best economics, and governments often choose public policies that economists know to be absurd.

我们都熟悉大都市圈，中心城市虽然有一些高楼大厦，但人口停滞不前，贫困人口比例不断上升，同时郊区也在不断发展和繁荣。在某种程度上，现代经济学就像这样一个大都市。尽管我们相信位于经济学中心的摩天大楼是如此壮丽，但在大多数美国大学里，经济学专业的学生数量已经下降，继续从事该学科研究的经济学专业毕业生比例下降，而获得经济学博士学位的人的就业市场已经趋紧。在宏观经济学中，没有任何一种范式能够产生成功科学所特有的专业共识。在经济学的大部分领域，与普遍的看法相反，经济学家通常同意。尽管如此，经济骗局往往比最好的经济学更能吸引媒体和政治家的注意，政府往往选择经济学家认为荒谬的公共政策。