Emerging technologies introduced by competitors will profoundly shape the way that the United States thinks about deterrence, seeks to deter aggression from its adversaries, and provides assurance for its allies. Currently, China, Russia, and other actors are conducting research and development activities in a host of emerging technology areas. Accompanying these activities are potential security implications. Although some research efforts have begun exploring the effect that such technologies could have on operational outcomes, very little is known about their potential relationship to strategic deterrence. Through a fiscal year 2020 study, Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century, RAND Corporation researchers took on the task of identifying the potential connections between emerging technologies and deterrence. This report serves as the study’s primary deliverable, summarizing the team’s findings on how the interactive practice of deterrence is likely to evolve over the next two decades under the influence of various current and emerging technologies. This research should be of value to the U.S. Air Force and the broader U.S. national security community, because it provides insights into the type of policies and investments that may be required to sustain effective deterrence in the National Security Strategy.

The research reported here was commissioned by the U.S. Air Force’s Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration Office (AF/A10) and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2020 project Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century.