The operating environment has changed significantly since NATO last updated its Strategic Concept in 2010. In that document, the focus was on out-of-area security and stability. Events over the past dozen years and those playing out today have driven greater emphasis on collective defense. The new strategic concept, expected to be presented at the 2022 Summit in Madrid, will undoubtedly focus on Article 5 and reflect the new reality in Europe. This new defense and security paradigm will have echoes of the Cold War, such as the current increase in troop numbers based in Europe. It will also embrace the profound technological, economic, and societal changes of the past three decades. As with the earlier forward basing of forces in West Germany, NATO’s increasing military presence and posture on its eastern periphery will need to provide credible deterrence.

However, threats are broader than just that of direct military action. Globalized and more open markets offer opportunities, dependencies, and vulnerabilities that affect societies and create security challenges. Technology enabled connectivity is a vital element of everyday life, and access to information is a democratic right. However, this situation affords adversaries far greater reach into societies than ever before. There are enduring physical and moral challenges, too. Developments in Ukraine have provided NATO with insight into the realities of future conflict that it must prepare to meet. With millions of displaced persons so far, the destruction of cities, and rising civilian deaths,3 the need to anticipate such situations and mitigate them could not be more clear.