The economy is like a machine. At the most fundamental level it is a relatively simple machine. But many people don’t understand it – or they don’t agree on how it works – and this has led to a lot of needless economic suffering. I feel a deep sense of responsibility to share my simple but practical economic template, and wrote this piece to describe how I believe it works. My description of how the economy works is different from most economists'. It has worked better, allowing me to anticipate the great deleveragings and market changes that most others overlooked. I believe that is because it is more practical. Since I certainly do not want you to blindly believe in my description of how the economic machine works, I have laid it out clearly so that you can assess the value of it yourself. So, let’s begin.

经济就像一台机器。在最基本的层面上，它是一台相对简单的机器。但许多人不理解这一点，或者他们对它的运作方式没有达成一致，这导致了许多不必要的经济损失。我有一种强烈的责任感来分享我简单但实用的经济模式，并写了这篇文章来描述我相信它是如何运作的。我对经济运行方式的描述与大多数经济学家不同。它的效果更好，让我能够预见到大多数人忽视的去杠杆化和市场变化。我相信那是因为它更实用。既然我当然不希望你们盲目相信我对经济机器如何运转的描述，我已经把它讲得很清楚，以便你们自己评估它的价值。那么，我们开始吧。