Nobody goes there anymore. It's too crowded

We have been surprised by a number of developments over the past six months, but two core views have anchored our economic outlook. First and foremost, the COVID-19 shock will generate lasting economic damage as the recovery in global GDP falls short of its pre-crisis path well into the current expansion. Second, although the COVID-19 shock has generated powerfully synchronized down-and-up growth this year, it will leave a legacy of large regional and sectoral divergences. These views remain firmly in place, despite the latest news altering projections and the risks around the outlook.

Underlying our forecasts is the judgment that many countries did not adequately contain COVID-19 at the time of re-opening. We expect this failure, combined with the limited resources devoted to virus prevention and control, to constrain the recovery. Rapid improvement in mobility last quarter in the face of elevated case counts challenged this view (Figure 1), leading to a series of upward revisions that moved our 3Q20 global GDP growth projection to 35.5% ar—more than 5%-pts above projections as the quarter began. Nevertheless, we have resisted extrapolating this positive surprise and have maintained a forecast for a sharp deceleration into year-end that leaves global GDP 4% below the level we had projected at the

start of this year.