该报告已下架
Our guide to Chinese monthly data What the numbers are, what they mean, and the outlook going forward.
September activities strong while Q3 GDP rebounded less than expected Most of September activities recovered further and came in better than market expectation, such as IP (6.9%y/y), property investment (12%), retail sales (3.3%) and exports (9.9%). That said, infrastructure investment saw another disappointment of 4.8% while catering sales were still 3% weaker than one year ago. Q3 growth rebounded to 4.9%, lower than expected. We think such disappointment was driven by: 1) some service sectors were not as strong as expected partly due to capacity restriction; 2) disappointing infrastructure FAI as property activities may have lowered the government’s incentive to ramp up public investment, and some local governments are still facing funding difficulties; and 3) the rebound of imports may have also limited net trade contribution to GDP growth from the national account perspective (see more in September and Q3 data comment). The ongoing growth recovery may continue with a slower sequential pace Assuming Covid-19 remains under control onshore, China's growth recovery should sustain in Q4, driven mainly by the continued recovery of consumption on the back of improving household income. Infrastructure investment may stay resilient thanks to greater funding support, while property activities may soften modestly on policy tightening. Exports will likely continue to benefit from recovering global demand. Overall speaking, we expect GDP growth to continue improving to 5.5%y/y in Q4. Given the weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP growth, we revise down our 2020 full year GDP growth forecast to 2.1% (vs 2.5% previously), and 2021 projection slightly to 7.5% (vs 7.6% previously).
No further policy easing in Q4; focus on 5th Plenum and 14th FYP In light of the strong growth recovery in Q2-Q3, we think policy easing momentum may have already peaked, although a turnaround to tightening is also unlikely given lingering uncertainties. We expect monetary & credit policies to stay supportive in Q4 but no cuts in RRR or MLF rates. Credit growth may continue to edge up in Oct-Nov before softening in end 2020 to 13.8%, and further down to 11% or lower in 2021. Market interest rates may stay elevated for the rest of the year, before picking up modestly in 2021 as growth rebounds further (see more about monetary policy). China is scheduled to hold the 5th Plenum meeting during Oct 26-29, in which the guideline for the 14th Five-Year Plan will be released. It is likely to include many important macro themes for the years to come (see our preview for the 14th FYP).
More CNY appreciation ahead The RMB has strengthened notably in recent weeks to 6.7 lately. The strength has been supported by some fundamental factors, e.g. a larger current account surplus, elevated yield differential, and China’s accelerated opening of financial market. Meanwhile, PBC stance on RMB may have switched to allow more appreciation. As a result, we think CNY may pick up a bit more to 6.5 by year-end. In 2021, we expect USDCNY to fluctuate but not appreciate further, even as the USD may weaken more against other major currencies and portfolio inflows likely continue. The lingering uncertainties related to US-China relations, the expected worsening of China's current account surplus, the likely narrowing of yield spread as US economy recovers, and persistent diversification outflows from Chinese households are the main reasons. If needed, we do expect the PBC to cool appreciation momentum by relaxing controls on capital outflows and tweaking the CNY daily fixing scheme (see more).
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