The novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spreadaround the world in a matter of a few short months in2020. Its long-term effects, as well as the ultimate durationand severity of the pandemic itself, are marked bydeep uncertainty.

While it is too early to forecast the consequences ofCOVID-19 with precision, it is possible to systematicallyexplore plausible trajectories for the medium-termfuture. This research paper uses scenarios to addressthe following question: what could be the impact of theCOVID-19 pandemic on the global political, economicand military balance of power over the course of thenext five years?

The paper focuses on six clusters of drivers of changeto build scenarios. In the realm of politics, the two clustersare governance and geopolitics. The governancecluster straddles the divide of domestic and internationalpolitics, combining social cohesion in societies,populism as a political force, the role of the state, nationalismand state capacity. The geopolitics cluster focuseson aspects of international leadership and alliances.

In the economic arena, clusters formed around thethemes of economic reordering and recovery. In the former,regionalism, protectionism, supply-chain dynamicsand Chinese technological leadership are considered. Inthe latter, the pace of the recovery is set in the context ofemployment, public debt, finance and energy issues.

In the military realm, drivers relating to armed conflictand to military posture were combined to formclusters. The armed-conflict cluster considers projectionsfor threat perceptions, major-power war, conflictamong middle powers and intra-state violence. Militaryposture is captured by examining issues around forceprojection, the digitisation of armed forces, defenceindustrialdynamics, strategic stability and the role ofnuclear weapons.