• Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth has every professional and amateur economist typing away at recession predictions. Forecasts for the near term do notinspire much hope.

• Coinciding with falling real GDP, consumer sentiment has plummeted to below global financial crisis (GFC) levels.

• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised to the upside with an 8.3% reading for August YoY. Energy prices in the US have remained at elevated levels, though they have come down from the summer peak.

• Given the mixed bag of economic signals, our PE Barometer screens a relatively neutral -0.17 reading, implying slightly below-average fund returns for Q3.

• The hunt for yield has been a staple of institutional investor conversations for years, offering a tailwind for private market allocations as investors seek greater returns. A regime shift to higher rate environment could drastically change the opportunity cost calculus.

• Private equity growth (16.7% net IRRs over 15-year horizon), buyout (13.7%), and venture capital (13.2%) funds have dominated the fund performance rankings over the long term. Whether that outperformance persists in tighter monetary conditions remains to be seen.