This report was prepared for the Regional Initiative for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR). It documents climate modelling and analysis done by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) to produce finer resolution climate projections over the Mashreq region.

Building upon the regional knowledge generated under RICCAR for the entire Arab region (ESCWA, 2017), SMHI established the Mashreq Domain at 10 km grid resolution. Regional climate modelling (regional climate model, RCM) was performed to dynamically downscale global climate model (GCM) results and prepare a new ensemble of regional climate modelling projections for this domain. The aim was to provide outputs at finer resolution – including bias-adjusted variables – that can be used by regional researchers to inform further climate analysis in the Mashreq region.