Reference Data Series No. 1 (RDS-1) is an annual publication — currently in its 42nd edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2050.

The publication is organized into world and regional subsections and starts with a summary of the status of nuclear power in IAEA Member States as of the end of 2021 based on the latest statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System.

It then presents global and regional projections for energy and electricity up to 2050 derived from two international studies: the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2021 [1] and the United States Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2021 [2]. The energy and electricity data for 2021 are estimated, as the latest information available from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs [3] and International Energy Agency [4] is for 2019. Population data originate from World Population Prospects 2022 [5], published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Global and regional nuclear power projections are presented as low and high cases, encompassing the uncertainties inherent in projecting trends. The projections are based on a critical review of (i) the global and regional energy, electricity and nuclear power projections made by other international organizations, (ii) national projections supplied by individual countries for a recent joint OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and IAEA study [6] and (iii) estimates of the expert group participating in an annual IAEA consultancy meeting.

The nuclear electrical generating capacity estimates presented in Table 5 on page 24 of the publication are derived using a country by country ‘bottom-up’ approach. In deriving these estimates, the group of experts considered all operating reactors, possible licence renewals, planned shutdowns and plausible construction projects foreseen for the next several decades. The experts build the estimates project by project by assessing the plausibility of each considering a high and low case.