A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. In many economies, however, prices in domestic-currency terms remain elevated because of currency depreciations. This could deepen the food and energy crises already underway in a number of countries. As the global growth slowdown intensifies, commodity prices are expected to ease in the next two years, but they will remain considerably above their average over the past five years. Energy prices are expected to fall by 11 percent in 2023 and 12 percent in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent, respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. This outlook, however, is subject to numerous risks both in the short- and medium-term. Energy markets face an array of supply concerns as worries about the availability of energy during the upcoming winter intensify in Europe. Higher-than-expected energy prices could pass through to non-energy prices, especially food, prolonging challenges associated with food insecurity. A sharper slowdown in global growth presents a key downside risk, especially for crude oil and metal prices. A Special Focus section suggests that concerns about a possible global recession have already contributed to a decline in copper prices from their peak in March 2022, and a shift in demand from aluminum has contributed to lower aluminum prices. Prices will likely remain volatile as the energy transition unfolds and demand moves from fossil fuels to renewables, which will benefit some metal producers. Metal-exporting countries can make the most of the resulting opportunities for growth over the medium-term, while limiting the impact of price volatility by ensuring they have well-designed fiscal and monetary frameworks.
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