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《大宗商品市场展望》(2022年10月)

# 大宗商品 # 市场展望 大小:4.42M | 页数:50 | 上架时间:2022-10-29 | 语言:英文

《大宗商品市场展望》(2022年10月).pdf

《大宗商品市场展望》(2022年10月).pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: 智释雯

出版日期: 2022-10-29

摘要:

A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity  prices. In many economies, however, prices in domestic-currency terms remain elevated because of currency  depreciations. This could deepen the food and energy crises already underway in a number of countries. As the  global growth slowdown intensifies, commodity prices are expected to ease in the next two years, but they will  remain considerably above their average over the past five years. Energy prices are expected to fall by 11 percent  in 2023 and 12 percent in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent,  respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. This outlook, however, is subject to numerous risks both in the  short- and medium-term. Energy markets face an array of supply concerns as worries about the availability of  energy during the upcoming winter intensify in Europe. Higher-than-expected energy prices could pass through  to non-energy prices, especially food, prolonging challenges associated with food insecurity. A sharper slowdown  in global growth presents a key downside risk, especially for crude oil and metal prices. A Special Focus section  suggests that concerns about a possible global recession have already contributed to a decline in copper prices  from their peak in March 2022, and a shift in demand from aluminum has contributed to lower aluminum  prices. Prices will likely remain volatile as the energy transition unfolds and demand moves from fossil fuels to  renewables, which will benefit some metal producers. Metal-exporting countries can make the most of the  resulting opportunities for growth over the medium-term, while limiting the impact of price volatility by  ensuring they have well-designed fiscal and monetary frameworks.

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