Oil prices are fundamentally well supported. Our proprietary model of the real Brent crude oil price explains 86% of its variation since 1993. It is based on widely followed demand and supply indicators such as world industrial production (IP), the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) new orders index, capacity utilization, world oil production, US crude oil stocks, and US petroleum refinery stocks. If the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintains agreed production cuts, the model points to an oil price of $196 per barrel! If OPEC production returns to pre-pandemic levels, fair value falls to $80 per barrel. Even accounting for additional risks, such as inventory build, lack of storage space and political uncertainty, we can see oil prices returning to pre-pandemic levels of $60-65 per barrel if world IP does not collapse or even recovers.