• The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted governments around the world to change their economic and political priorities and China is no exception. Its shifting priorities will have implications for its engagement in developing economies. ODI’s Economic Pulse series reviews Chinese macroeconomic indicators, project-level data, policyannouncements and debt negotiations to forge a holistic view of the country’s international economic response.

• China’s investment appetite during the pandemic has been sluggish, but positive signs are starting to emerge. Non-financial outward direct investment (NFODI) has increased for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, despite a decrease in overall NFODI, and the domestic production of industrial inputs has started to recover. If this results in a return to overproduction, it may incentivise greater financing for Chinese-funded infrastructure projects abroad, albeit with a lag.

• The total number of outward investment deals announced and signed (both greenfieldand mergers and acquisitions) declined in the first half of 2020, but recovered somewhat in the third quarter. Energy-related investments and construction contracts remain dominated by coal, but there are more solar and wind projects than before. Since the start of the pandemic, overseas economic activity has declined in volume terms and shifted away from Europe towards Asian and African countries. This may be down to Beijing’s efforts to court low- and middle-income country partnerships. Overall, the drop in economic activity can be attributed to the pandemic, though overseas investments were already declining beforehand.

• On the policy front, the Chinese government provided prompt support to domestic companies operating overseas and to BRI projects after the Covid-19 outbreak. China Development Bank (CDB) said it would cut interest rates on both foreign-exchange and Renminbi (RMB) borrowings, offer liquidity support to enterprises so that they could quickly resume their activities, delay loan repayments for struggling companies, speed up the approval of financing packages and facilitate foreign-exchange services for ‘high-quality’ BRI projects and companies, which may explain why NFODI to BRI countries grew despite the year-on-year drop in total NFODI.

• Short term, foreign investment and service exports are unlikely to return to prepandemic levels; these were already slowing in Africa and Latin America in the wake of international criticism and because of Beijing’s desire to improve the quality of its projects and lending. China’s attention will now focus on renegotiating its loans to lowand middle-income countries. It has signed up to the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative and official statements have mentioned debtsuspension agreements and the waiver ofinterest- free loans due to mature by end 2020 for a number of African countries.

• China is also looking to strengthen ties with its neighbours and BRI partners amid turbulent relationships with the major advanced economies. Between January and September 2020, bilateral engagements were predominantly with Asian heads of state. Health security and vaccines have been key areas of interest and cooperation, but there has also been an emphasis on the benefits of deeper economic and security ties and advancing planned regional economic corridors.