高盛-2023全球宏观展望（英）

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高盛-2023全球宏观展望（英）

# 2023 # 全球 # 宏观大小：0.42M | 页数：24 | 上架时间：2022-11-23 | 语言：英文

高盛-2023全球宏观展望（英）.pdf

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高盛-2023全球宏观展望（英）.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: 资料分享客栈

撰写机构: 高盛

出版日期: 2022-11-16

摘要：

Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and monetary tightening, China’s Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Russia-Ukraine war. We expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China.

n The US should narrowly avoid recession as core PCE inflation slows from 5% now to 3% in late 2023 with a ½pp rise in the unemployment rate. To keep growth below potential amidst stronger real income growth, we now see the Fed hiking another 125bp to a peak of 5-5.25%. We don’t expect cuts in 2023.

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