We believe global equity markets will climb by over 12% next year, spurred on by a recovery induced by COVID-19 vaccines. Admittedly this is a consensus view so where do we differ? Well it comes down to what exactly will drive the rebound. Earnings will likely post some big numbers next year, but we see a risk of disappointment given the lofty expectations and potential logistical challenges in distributing vaccines. Instead, we believe that the major catalyst needed for a further move higher in equities will be further expansions in valuations, led by sustained ultraloose monetary policies, a fall in the equity risk premium (ERP) and a wall of money moving into equities. And the nuances of what lifts equities matters. Consensus earnings forecasts are the highest for value sectors, which, thus, have the most scope for disappointment. Meanwhile, a fall in the ERP would primarily benefit long-duration sectors, i.e. growth. Despite all the hoo-ha about a massive value rotation, we remain slightly more balanced. So our recommendations for 2021 are to stick with the US, stick with Tech and add to that some EM exposure and selective quality cyclical sectors.