This study is a preliminary risk screening of  regional climate change risks to electricity  generation, transmission and distribution  infrastructure in the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan  and Uzbekistan. All three countries have  established green energy visions and are pursuing  renewables portfolios of small- to utility-scale  solar, wind and hydropower projects through  mixed financing from development banks, the  Green Climate Fund and private investment.

While the expansion of renewables and transitions  to net-zero carbon economies are necessary  to avoid catastrophic climate change, such  renewables infrastructure investments need  to be resilient to a number of rapidly changing  threats related to climate change, environmental  degradation and cyber-attacks. Low-carbon  energy systems also need to be able to meet the  opportunities of diversifying economies and new  technologies, such as widespread use of electric  vehicles. Yet planning for the long time horizons  of climate change is novel for many energy policymakers and energy companies around the world. 

Energy infrastructure is a significant investment,  with the expected lifetime of utility-scale solar  ranging from 25 to 40 years, and hydropower  plants around 80 years. A climate hazard may not  only impact a specific piece of infrastructure but  also trigger cascading impacts throughout the  energy system, as well as ecosystems.

This study draws from analysis of projections from  high-resolution regional climate models from the  Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment  (CORDEX), combined with a review of national  climate and disaster risk management plans and  literature around climate change risks to energy  infrastructure to present the preliminary risk  screening. CORDEX regional models belong to  the suite of international climate models that  informed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate  Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment. However,  they have not yet been incorporated into the  national assessments of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and  Uzbekistan. Drawing on this set of models expands  the suite of models for examining more localised  climate risks to infrastructure.

Climate change impacts are already being felt  across the three countries in this study. Clear and  statistically significant increases in maximum and  minimum temperatures across all three countries  and at most elevations are detectable over the  past few decades. CORDEX projections for the  2050s (2036–2065) indicate potential increases in  mean annual maximum temperatures of between  1.8°C and 2.2°C for most of the region under  Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6  and RCP4.5, with increases of up to 4.0°C for the  Pamir-Alay and eastern Pamirs in Tajikistan. Mean  annual minimum temperature increases are also  more pronounced over the Pamir, Pamir-Alay and  parts of the Tian Shan – up to 3.1°C under RCP2.6  and 3.6°C under RCP4.5. By the 2050s, under  RCP2.6, most of the Bukhara region and a swath  extending from southern Navoi eastwards in  Uzbekistan are projected to experience 60+ days  with daily maximums exceeding 33°C between July  and September; under RCP4.5, more than half of  Uzbekistan faces heatwaves.