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IMF-评估供应中断对全球大流行性复苏的影响(英)-2023.2

# 供应中断 # 大流行性 大小:0.92M | 页数:42 | 上架时间:2023-03-03 | 语言:英文

IMF-评估供应中断对全球大流行性复苏的影响(英)-2023.2.pdf

IMF-评估供应中断对全球大流行性复苏的影响(英)-2023.2.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: GHY-s

撰写机构: IMF

出版日期: 2023-02-27

摘要:

We estimate the role of (pre-Ukraine war) supply disruptions in constraining the Covid-19 pandemic recovery, for several advanced economies and emerging markets, and globally. We rely on two approaches. In the first approach, we use sign-restricted Vector Auto Regressions (SVAR) to identify supply and demand shocks in manufacturing, based on the co-movement of surveys on new orders and suppliers’ delivery times. The effects of these shocks on industrial production and GDP are recovered through a combination of local projection methods and the input-output framework in Acemoglu et al. (2016). In the second approach, we use the IMF’s G20 model to gauge the importance of supply shocks in jointly driving activity and inflation surprises. We find that supply disruptions subtracted between 0.5 and 1.2 percent from global value added during the global recovery in 2021, while also adding about 1 percent to global core inflation that same year.

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