Bottom line, the rebalancing act in oil markets is delicate, but it is progressing, in our view. Our base-case demand forecast assumes a return to pre-COVID demand levels by 2H22 (and we are just shy of it in 2H21 due to weaker jet). This trajectory coupled with OPEC+ compliance should allow commercial oil inventories to normalize by late 2021. Whilst near term headwinds from COVID-19 (and slower distribution of the vaccine) could pose downside risk to our 1H21 demand forecasts, Saudi Arabia is going the extra mile by cutting more steeply. Potentially weaker demand and additional Saudi cuts, however, will weigh on refining margins in 1H21, where, despite >2mbd of closures/conversions announced, require another 1.5-2.0mbd of closures, in our view, for spare capacity to normalize once demand returns to pre-COVID-19 levels. Global LNG prices have seen a sharp recovery since August 2020 driven by significant supply outages, and now further exacerbated by seasonally stronger demand. Whilst there are potential headwinds in the summer once capacity returns, we are moving into a better cycle (2022-24) for global LNG markets, thus supporting prices vs 2019-20 levels. Crude oil – raise Brent by ~$9/bbl in 2021 (to ~$59/bbl) and by $3/bbl in 2022 (to $63/bbl) – Long term Brent is unchanged at $60/bbl (WTI $55/bbl). Our fundamental view on global oil balances has not changed; we continue to forecast commercial inventories to normalize by late 2021 and OPEC-10 spare capacity to move towards 3% during 2H22 (we assume pre-COVID demand to reach in 2H22). We, however, mark to market our near term Brent forecast to reflect recent weakness in the US$ Index (i.e., as US$ weakens, Brent strengthens). Furthermore, the recent decision by Saudi Arabia to unilaterally pursue a voluntary cut by 1mbd for Feb and March shows a strong signal by Saudi to do what it takes to protect prices and de-risk the process to normalize inventories. Prior to the recent OPEC+ meeting, there were concerns that OPEC+ would taper production cuts too fast. The return of Iran remains an uncertainty, hence we risk the price upside in 2022. Refining – margins to remain challenged in the near term. Global refining margins were largely flat q/q in 4Q20, but remain at distressed levels. Towards the end of 4Q20, margins showed a positive trend, which is likely supply led. Many refineries have been shut, while operators have more aggressively managed output down in light of weak demand. The ‘vaccine hope’ has slowed the pace of refinery closures of late. More closures will be needed, and will likely eventuate for as long as the margin recovery is slow. Overall, we think the return to mid-cycle refining margins more sustainably may take some time, although in the absence of project FIDs (Final Investment Decision) coupled with demand growth beyond pre-COVID levels could see the refining market tighten again by 2024/25, we think. LNG – sharp recovery. Spot LNG prices have troughed at $1.8/mmbtu in 2020 and finished the year at $14.6/mmbtu (some prompt cargoes in January 2021 >$30/mmbtu); whilst global LNG demand is likely slightly up y/y in 2020, it was supply outages since August that drove the rally in prices. The market is now tight, further exacerbated by the seasonality (plus a cold snap in Asia and Europe), which as a result is drawing down on inventories faster than expected. As a result, we increase our UK (NBP) gas prices to ~$7/mmbtu (from ~$4.8/mmbtu) in 1Q21, but view summer forwards as optimistic. Our FY21 forecast for NBP prices now stand at ~$6.0/mmbtu (up from ~$4.5/mmbtu previously) and compares to forward curve (of ~$6.3/mmbtu). We assume $6.1/mmbtu in 2022 (normal winter), $6.9/mmbtu in 2023-24 and $6.4/mmbut in 2025.