Faced with the unprecedented global pandemic and heightened geopolitical tensions, China introduced “Dual Circulation” model as the guideline for next phase of development, to strategically rebalance the economy and aim to achieve a more sustainable development ultimately. We expect “Dual Circulation” will focus on technology self-reliance, import/supply-chain substitution and domestic demand expansion. It’s also the right timing to roll out this strategy given China’s significant domestic demand upgrade and readiness of hard and soft infrastructure. We expect China’s technology self-reliance initiatives to bring profound changes along with associated investment opportunities. China will most likely adopt an overall balanced approach, at both government and company levels, striving to close the gap in key technologies and products, increase investments in basic research, provide financial support, and encourage R&D. The capital market can play a much bigger role in financing companies’ R&D development and providing strong incentives to develop technology and talent. China will further reduce auto components import in the upcoming smart EV era. We see domestic automation companies continuing to gain market share in the next 5-10 years. It is not easy for China to be fully independent in the semiconductor sector in the foreseeable future due to the sophisticated global supply chain. However, we expect China to increase its bargaining power and market influence. Chinese companies have already established their strong presence across hardware and components and gradually caught up in software (vertical applications/SaaS) by adopting domestic solutions. Please also check our regional tech team’s report “The uneven rise of China’s IC Industry”, and industrial team’s new report on automation “Riding the capex upcycle and benefiting from localization”. We pick the long-term winners with focus on technology competitiveness, R&D capacity, product design/development sophistication, import replacement potential, and management capability over valuation. We like: Nio in NEV; Inovance, Estun, and Leader Harmonious in automation; and Hua Hong, SMIC, Will Semi, Maxscend, and Yonyou in tech. We have also screened and made a list of stocks, based on HOLT® growth and quality scores. Further, by leveraging industry segmentation data, our QSS team screened for a comprehensive list of stock beneficiaries and create broad-based tradable baskets for this theme.
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