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瑞信-美股医疗保健行业-牙医调查显示:第4季度需求放缓,但第1季度NTM前景表明,市场预期经济将继续复苏,尽管复苏缓慢-2021.1.22-58页

# 美股 # 医疗保 # 牙医 大小:2.43M | 页数:58 | 上架时间:2021-02-04 | 语言:英文

瑞信-美股医疗保健行业-牙医调查显示:第4季度需求放缓,但第1季度NTM前景表明,市场预期经济将继续复苏,尽管复苏缓慢-2021.1.22-58页.pdf

瑞信-美股医疗保健行业-牙医调查显示:第4季度需求放缓,但第1季度NTM前景表明,市场预期经济将继续复苏,尽管复苏缓慢-2021.1.22-58页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: FF

撰写机构: 瑞信

出版日期: 2021-01-22

摘要:

4Q Dental Practice Volume, Revenue Retrenches, but NTM Outlook Improves: According to our proprietary survey of 75 US dental practitioners, almost two-thirds (62%) of practices experienced greater than 5% declines in revenue in 4Q, suggesting tempered Dental demand relative to the 3Q experience (51%), potentially due to an uptick in COVID- 19 cases throughout the winter months, as well as a falloff of pent-up demand experienced in 3Q. In 4Q, practice revenue is estimated to have fallen 20.2% y/y on a weighted average basis, also a sequential deceleration relative to 3Q (-13.6%), albeit still meaningfully better than 2Q lows (-56.5%) with preventative (-19.4%) representing the most meaningful driver, followed by cosmetic (-19.2%), routine visits (-18.6%), and existing patient traffic (-17.5%). Respondents remain cautiously optimistic going forward, with expectations of a steady, but slow recovery, with practitioners expecting an 8.5% decline in 1Q, which would still represent a notable sequential improvement, as well as a 4.4% rise over the NTM, reflecting the expectation of broader vaccine distribution throughout the year following recent EUAs, easy comps, as well as some potential medium-term increase in acute care cases following practice visit deferrals throughout 2020. All in, the pandemic has driven a meaningful deterioration in dental demand, with likely a measured recovery going forward, consistent with historical experiences following macroeconomic pullbacks as well as survey commentary.   

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