该报告已下架
Credit growth is slowing just gradually with the economy back to its pre-Covid path. Interbank stress should ease; financial stability risks look manageable despite idiosyncratic corporate bond defaults. We see higher CGB rates and stronger CNY.
Remain OW on A-shares amid near-term volatility.
The PBoC is not overtightening: The recent tightening remains countercyclical; it shouldn't be taken as an asset bubble warning. The PBoC deliberately kept interbank liquidity quite loose in December and early January to ease the impact of onshore credit default in November. However, 4Q GDP data confirmed that the economy has returned to its pre-Covid path, and the corporate bond market has normalized. Thus, policy tightening naturally came recently under Beijing’s countercyclical framework. That said, credit growth is slowing just gradually rather than falling off a cliff, at a much milder pace than the same period in 2018.
Roadmap of future tightening: We expect some normalization in liquidity to be in sight. The PBoC could inject more liquidity in the coming weeks, consistent with its historical pattern of heavy injection approaching Lunar New Year holidays.
The seven-day interbank repo rate could fall, narrowing its gap with the policy rate. Nevertheless, with financial tightening policies aimed at banks' on-balancesheet credits, off-balance-sheet shadow credits, and bond issuance standards, we expect broad credit growth could gradually moderate 2ppt this year.
Financial stability risks look manageable: Policy exit could lead to idiosyncratic bond defaults, but we expect a decline in overall financial system NPLs via frontloading of NPL digestion in the past year, as well as improved cash flow for more companies and households amid economic recovery.
Investment implications: Min Dai and Kelvin Pang are fixed income strategists and are not opining on equity securities. Robin Xing, Jenny Zheng, Zhipeng Cai and Helen Lai are economists and are not opining on any securities. Their views are clearly delineated.
Due to the nature of the fixed income market, the issuers or bonds of the issuers recommended or discussed in this report may not be continuously followed. Accordingly, investors must regard this report as providing stand-alone analysis and should not expect continuing analysis or additional reports relating to such issuers or bonds of the issuers.
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Equity strategy: Despite expecting heightened near-term volatility, we stay OW on A-shares. We cite strong earnings, lack of signs of overheating.
Fixed income and FX: We also recommend buying 10-year CGBs vs. paying five-year NDIRS, and remain long CNH/JPY.
相关报告
高盛中国市场策略-2022市场展望:“不适”的上行空间;离岸市场重回超配
5346
类型:策略
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、中国、市场展望)
语言:中文
金额:免费
国际投行报告-全球芯片行业:芯片的冲突-台积电、三星和英特尔(英)
3964
类型:行研
上传时间:2022-06
标签:投行报告、芯片、冲突)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
HSBC-中国房地产和物业管理行业2022年展望-2021.11.9-75页
3447
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、房地产、物业)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
汇丰-中国汽车芯片
3077
类型:行研
上传时间:2022-07
标签:汽车、芯片、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
HSBC-全球投资策略之未来城市:城市化形态的变化-2021.4-54页
2371
类型:策略
上传时间:2021-05
标签:投行报告、未来城市、城市化)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-2021年全球财富报告(英)
2337
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-06
标签:全球财富、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
民银智库《2021年全球与中国宏观经济形势展望》(《民银智库研究》2020年第36期,总第155期)
1915
类型:宏观
上传时间:2020-12
标签:中国宏观经济、后疫情时代、新四化引擎)
语言:中文
金额:免费
瑞信-2022全球投资展望:股票、地区和宏观-2021.11.17-194页
1731
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、2022投资展望、宏观经济)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-全球财富报告2020-2020.10-56页
1543
类型:专题
上传时间:2020-10
标签:全球财富、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
瑞信-全球半导体行业:中国集成电路产业的不均衡崛起-2021.1.20-184页
1506
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-01
标签:半导体、中国集成电路、投行报告)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元