Only a month ago many were expecting the USD to weaken this year, with some looking for asubstantial and structural decline in the greenback. But that conviction has waned, to bereplaced by hesitation and uncertainty. Some are even shifting to a view that the USD declinecould be ending. This appears to be based on the idea that US growth expectations are beingrevised higher – in some cases materially so – just as the FX reflation view has paused.For the latter, activity has been slowing in a number of places and on some measures back tothe level seen in Q2 2020, even though COVID-19 vaccines are increasingly deployed (see ‘EMFX Roadmap: Marathon, not a sprint’, 27 January 2021). This has coincided with some globalactivity surprises also losing upward momentum (Chart 1). Both of these developments havechallenged the FX market’s reflationary mindset and, we believe, played to the USD’s advantage.But what about the US growth recovery argument? Will this be strong enough to improve theUSD trend? It is tempting for us to believe so, after being USD positive through 2018 into 2020.We can understand why some are increasingly thinking this “US exceptionalism” is back. Thisrecent breakdown in the inverse relationship between the USD and equity markets is alreadyfostering thoughts of a new paradigm for the FX market whereby a stronger US growth narrativecoincides with both stronger equities and a stronger USD (Chart 2). Is a new FX regimeunfolding, particularly for the USD?
相关报告
花旗银行184页重磅报告《元宇宙与金钱》
3967
类型:专题
上传时间:2022-05
标签:元宇宙、货币)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
《货币简史:从货币的起源到货币的未来》
3648
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2021-03
标签:金融、货币、简史)
语言:中文
金额:5元
185页重磅PPT:读懂美联储 (陈达飞)
3033
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-11
标签:美联储、就业、货币)
语言:中文
金额:免费
2023年二季度宏观展望:经济复苏如何?海外风险多大?
2572
类型:宏观
上传时间:2023-04
标签:宏观经济、海外风险、货币)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
2020年三季度货币政策执行报告
2397
类型:专题
上传时间:2020-11
标签:货币、政策、2020Q3)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
2021年四季度宏观经济与政策展望:经济“类滞胀”与货币困境-20211013-东北证券-49页
2038
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-10
标签:滞胀、货币、2021Q4)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
华西证券-宏观研究宝典:货币市场流动性分析
1979
类型:宏观
上传时间:2022-02
标签:宏观、货币)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
桥水基金达里欧最新作品:中国的大周期及其货币
1824
类型:宏观
上传时间:2020-09
标签:达理欧、中国、货币)
语言:中文
金额:免费
电子书-International Finance Theory And Policy《国际金融(第11版)》
1408
类型:电子书
上传时间:2020-08
标签:国际金融、货币、股票)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
中国发达国家为何采取宽松货币政策
1319
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-02
标签:货币、政策)
语言:中文
金额:免费
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元
请登录,再发表你的看法
登录/注册