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Rising oil prices; demand reflation; 10 stock ideas Despite rising oil prices and prospects of economies re-opening, the EM Energy sector has had a relatively modest start to 2021, being up 3.9% YTD – lagging MSCI EM (up 8.3%) as well as DM Energy stocks (up 19.3%). In this report, we look at the issues that will likely drive the energy sector, assessing some key investment debates and conclude with 10 stock ideas (Figure 2). We reiterate our O/W stance on EM Energy as a vaccine rollout (Figure 14) reflates oil demand and underpins positive earnings momentum with consensus 2021 earnings growth of 231%, the highest in EM (Figure 10) while valuations remain attractive (Figure 11).
Demand recovery exceeding expectations with spreads remaining resilient In China, the entire integrated oil, gas and petrochemicals chain has seen a strong recovery, the natural gas market has been tighter than expected, gasoline and diesel demand have returned to pre-Covid levels, while retail gasoline and diesel spreads remain strong despite record high inventories. In India, oil products demand has recovered to pre-Covid levels while in gas industrial demand has recovered faster than compressed natural gas demand; in LatAm, we are also witnessing a major recovery due to a reduction in surplus capacity resulting in a tighter supply-demand balance.
ESG: early corporate steps; increasing government focus on decarbonisation At the company level, ESG progress remains nascent but there is increasing government focus towards decarbonisation. In the next few months, 5-year plans from China's oil SOEs should provide more detail on how they plan to pursue or contribute to China's decarbonisation plans. In India, government focus is on both decarbonisation and the reduction in the country's imported crude dependency such as via city gas distribution projects, while in Russia, an agreement between Rosneft and BP around decarbonisation has just been signed in the past month.
Geared to rising inflation; slight preference for upstream exposure The performance of the EM Energy sector is geared to rising inflation expectations, having a 68% positive correlation with US 10y inflation breakeven (Figure 1). Our top picks include CNOOC (production upside), GAIL (UBS Key Call: oil price recovery), PTT (strong gas business), COOEC (undervalued), Indraprastha Gas (policy support), BPCL (deregulation upside), Lukoil (upstream upside), Motor Oil (margin recovery), BRDT (fuel distribution) and Petrobras (following the recent sell-off).
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