In the months since the COVID-19 outbreak was first diagnosed, it has spread to over 200 countries and all U.S. states. The pandemic has negatively affected global economic growth beyond anything experienced in nearly a century. Estimates so far indicate the virus reduced global economic growth to an annualized rate of -4.5% to -6.0% in 2020, with a partial recovery of 2.5% to 5.2% projected for 2021. Major advanced economies, which comprise 60% of global economic activity, are forecasted to operate below their potential output level through at least 2024. Compared with the synchronized nature of the global economic slowdown in the first half of 2020, the global economy showed signs of a two-track recovery in the third quarter of 2020 with developed economies experiencing a nascent recovery and economic growth in developing economies lagging behind. A resurgence in infectious cases in Europe, the United States, and various developing economies since September renewed calls for lockdowns and curfews and threatened to weaken or delay a sustained economic recovery into at least the first or second quarters of 2021.

The economic fallout from the pandemic could risk continued labor dislocations as a result of lingering high levels of unemployment not experienced since the Great Depression of the 1930s and high levels of debt among developing economies. Job losses have been concentrated more intensively in the services sector where workers have been unable to work offsite. The human costs in terms of lives lost will permanently affect global economic growth in addition to the cost of rising levels of poverty, lives upended, careers derailed, and increased social unrest. Some estimates indicate that 100 million to 110 million people globally could enter extreme poverty as a result of the contraction in the global economy. In addition, some estimates indicate that global trade could fall by an annual amount of 9.0% or slightly less in 2020 as a result of the global economic downturn, exacting an especially heavy economic toll on trade-dependent developing and emerging economies. The full economic impact of the pandemic likely will remain unclear until the negative health effects peak. This report provides an overview of the global economic costs to date and the response by governments and international institutions to address these effects.