Post-Acute Companies Had Mild Adj. EBITDA Beats in Q4: Elevated COVID cases and staff out on quarantine led to an increase in use of contract staffing and pressure on volume growth in some post-acute subsectors (e.g., home health) in Q4. Despite this, the post-acute companies we cover were able to effectively manage costs. Excluding CARES Act grants that were not included in our estimates, ACHC, AMED, EHC, LHCG, and SEM all posted mild beats relative to EBITDA expectations in Q4, generally driven by better-than-anticipated margin. SEM’s beat was driven by top-line growth. Q4 Volumes Across Post-Acute: During Q4, LTACHs saw the strongest volume growth of the post-acute group, benefiting from acute hospitals needing to free up ICU capacity. SEM’s LTACH patient days were up 10% Y/Y. ACHC’s Psych hospitals also performed well, with SS patient days growing nearly 4% Y/Y. Home health was mixed, with SS admits up 2% Y/Y for LHCG and up 6% Y/Y for AMED, yet down low-single digits (SD) for EHC. Hospice saw low-to mid-teens SS admit growth Y/Y, yet roughly flat ADC as median length of stay was pressured. IRF patient days were up low-single digits Y/Y, benefiting from high acuity driving elevated length of stay. Outpatient rehab visits declined mid-single-digits Y/Y in Q4. Home health, IRFs, and LTACHs all generally posted low-SD sequential volume growth in Q4, while outpatient rehab had high-SD sequential growth. 2021 Guidance Mixed: Initial 2021 Adj. EBITDA guidance bracketed consensus ests for ACHC, AMED, and LHCG. SEM’s guidance was well above consensus ests. Alternatively, EHC’s guidance for 2021 came in below expectations. EHC pointed to excess de novo costs and continued pandemic pressure on volumes / costs. However, EHC generally guides conservatively and raises guidance throughout the year. We think guidance given by all of the companies is likely achievable, and see considerable upside potential for EHC, followed by upside potential for AMED and LHCG. For reference, the midpoint of 2021 guidance implies Y/Y Adj. EBITDA growth of 4.5% for ACHC, 17.0% for AMED, 9.3% for EHC, 14.8% for LHCG, and 6.2% for SEM. Yet, when normalizing results to include COVID costs and exclude grant funds for both 2020 and 2021, the midpoint of 2021 guidance implies Y/Y EBITDA growth of 12.1% for ACHC, 28.8% for AMED, 9.3% for EHC, 35.2% for LHCG, and 15.8% for SEM. Volume Growth Implied in 2021 Guidance: Guidance implies high-SD to low-teens organic volume growth for home health and mid-SD volume growth for IRFs - both off fairly easy comps. Behavioral health volumes are expected to grow 4-5% Y/Y, off 2020 volumes which held in relatively well. LTACH volumes are expected to be flat to up low-single-digits after a strong year in 2020. OP Therapy volumes are expected to increase in the low-teens off very easy 2020 comps.
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