The projections included in this issue of the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from the same database used for the April 2021 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (and are referred to as “IMF staff projections”). Fiscal projections refer to the general government, unless otherwise indicated. Short-term projections are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions. The fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged by the IMF staff as likely to be implemented. For countries supported by an IMF arrangement, the projections are those under the arrangement. In cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged cyclically adjusted primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Details on the composition of the groups, as well as country-specific assumptions, can be found in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.
The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the general guidance of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department. The project was directed by Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director; and Paulo Medas, Division Chief. The main authors of this issue are W. Raphael Lam and Mehdi Raissi (team leaders), Hamid R. Davoodi, William Gbohoui, Xuehui Han, Gee Hee Hong, Roberto Perrelli, Yuan Xiang, and Susan Yang for Chapter 1, which also benefited from contributions by Racheeda Boukezia, Teresa Curristine, Ruud de Mooij, Paul Elger, Alexandra Fotiou, Andresa Lagerborg, Sébastien Leduc, John Ralyea, Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz, Fazeer Sheik Rahim, Lorena Rivero del Paso, Xavier Rame, and Claude Wendling; and David Amaglobeli (lead), Jean-Marc Fournier (deputy), Fernanda Brollo, Chuling Chen, Maria Coelho, Andresa Lagerborg, Yuan Xiao with contributions from Kristoffer Berg, Ruud de Mooij, Shafik Hebous, Alex Klemm, Sébastien Leduc, Paolo Mauro, and Adil Mohommad for Chapter 2. The authors are also grateful to David Coady, Assistant Director, for his help-ful comments and suggestions. Excellent research contributions were provided by Yuan Xiang and Andrew Womer. The Methodological and Statistical Appendix was prepared by Yuan Xiang. Joni Mayfield and Meron Haile pro-vided excellent coordination and editorial support. Rumit Pancholi from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production, with editorial assistance from Christine Ebrahimzadeh, Susan Graham, Nancy Morrison, Devlan O’Connor, and Vector Talent Resources.
Inputs, comments, and suggestions were received from other departments in the IMF, including area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as the Communications Department, Institute for Capacity Development, Finance Department, Legal Department, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Secretary’s Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. The chapter 2 of the Fiscal Monitor also benefited from comments by Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley), Wojciech Kopczuk (Columbia University), Camille Landais (London School of Economics), César Martinelli (George Mason University), Susan W. Parker (University of Maryland), Juan Gabriel Rodríguez (Complutense University), Carolina Sánchez-Páramo (World Bank), and Roy Van der Weide (World Bank). Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.
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