The digital journey has just begun. In the last decade, tech’s influence has gone from a few discretionary purchases to the entire consumer wallet. See Spotlight: EM ex Asia consumer tech (12 April 2021). While the US is still digitally under-penetrated, EM is early in the first innings. Despite twice as many the internet users and 40% of GDP compared to the US, EM ex Asia consumer tech market cap is at c13% of the US comparable. Strong potential for growth and investment opportunities in EM ex Asia, combined with their investments in India, bode well for Prosus’s ex-Tencent portfolio.
We like the intensity in capital deployment and the cash raised from sale of a 2% stake in Tencent. Prosus deployed USD4bn in FY21 (ended 31 March 2021), higher than the average of USD2.2bn in the previous three years. The company raised USD14.6bn on 8 April, which we think could be deployed in multiple opportunities within its core verticals and potentially additional buybacks. Tencent is now c80% of the NAV and at this investment pace, could go to 70% in 10 years. Prosus is trading at a 33% discount to NAV and Naspers at 48%. Drivers to narrowing the discount include corporate restructuring at Naspers (lowering stake in Prosus), strong pace of investments (and/or asset sale/listings), and a standing policy of buybacks when discounts widen.
We value the food delivery portfolio at USD17.6bn, IRR higher than 45%. From being a part of the ‘Ventures’ segment until FY18, food delivery is now the most valuable e-commerce vertical. Naspers/Prosus has invested a total of USD5.5bn in this vertical and we value the portfolio at USD17.6bn (1.2x FY22e GMV). Alternative data-points support a value above USD15bn: Delivery Hero’s current market cap of USD35bn, Swiggy’s recent funding round valuing it at USD5bn (Bloomberg, 5 April), and JustEat Takeaway turning down an offer to buy its 33% stake in iFood, which would value the company above USD8bn. iFood stood out in our proprietary Brazil consumer survey. iFood’s brand preference came in the strongest across 15 categories, ahead of majors like Netflix in streaming, MELI in e-commerce, and McDonalds in fast food (see charts on page 4). We raise our TP for Prosus to EUR120 (from EUR112) and Naspers to ZAR4,900 (from ZAR4,800) based on higher Tencent closing price and food delivery valuation.
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