Macro conditions have been benign on the two dimensions that have mattered most for the dollar—US yields have declined and global growth continues to exhibit strength, particularly in Europe.
Our selectively bullish USD view has been challenged. The medium-term view is still for higher US yields and eventually modestly lower EUR/USD……but recent moves could persist in the absence of corroborating data. Overall long USD exposure is reduced in G10 recommendations. Stay underweight in EM FX on fewer idiosyncratic opportunities and growth underperformance.
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