We upgrade our Industry View on the Oilfield Services & Equipment sector to Positive as we believe the sector is poised to outperform over the next several years as the global oil markets not only recover by 2023, but upstream spending continues to expand out to 2025 on the back of increasing global demand. This comes full circle from our first report for Barclays in January 2015, in which we initiated with a Neutral Industry View on concerns the industry would be caught in a power struggle between OPEC and the US over global oil supplies. It took six years for the cycle to trough (and six years to upgrade), a painful period of oilfield deflation as global upstream spending fell 56%, marked by commoditization, capacity overbuild and declining margins. However, the 2020 oil price crash is eerily similar to the one in 1986 (55% decline in upstream spending from 1981), which led to broader industry transformation in the 1990s and a rebirth of the sector. This is already happening again as OFS names with the best businesses, technologies, and balance sheets will not only rise above but will outperform once again as the earnings revision cycle gains momentum fueled by increasing upstream spending, improving margins, and restrained OFS capex.
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