Not surprising after 1Q results, our latest proprietary system integrator surveyreflects an upbeat outlook, supporting optimism that capex is returning with stronggrowth in ’21, as per most indicators in a truncated cycle. This survey pointed toan inflection in expectations with commentary at the highest level that we have insurvey records in most instances, further evidence that this cycle is different fromthe past. Most integrators (90%) anticipate an increase in demand over the next 12months, a meaningful step up from prior surveys that were downbeat as COVID-19 was still having an impact. Similarly, orders are expected to ramp up further,translating to revenue growth. This is supported by pent up demand fromunderinvestment through the pandemic leading to more positive client capexforecasts with 80% of respondents anticipating at least some growth. This said,backlog commentary is only somewhat stronger and visibility appears slightlylower than the positive sentiment. Compared to the prior ‘14/’15 cycle, wheredeclines were nowhere near as onerous as ‘08/’09, sentiment seems stronger withthe forward look for revenue much higher than we previously saw and somerespondents even going as faras to say that COVID-19 had no impact on theirbusiness. Client capex expectations are also better this time around (up 0-10% vs.0-5% declines in ‘15). On end markets, positive commentary is still skewedtowards hybrid markets like Food & Beverage, which has been consistent for thepast three years, and Life Sciences is viewed positively for the second survey in arow. All in, this reflects what we see in the macro data, with a fast in, fast outdynamic in activity driving a more shallow decline in capex in '20, and an evenmore significant move back up in '21 to beyond trend and beyond prior cyclepeaks, with sustainability of growth the key question to be answered in the Fallsurvey. Turning to software, tech adoption appears to be accelerating but isseemingly shifting towards IT consultants versus automation equipment suppliers.We continue to like OW-rated Siemens versus UW-rated ROK, with Siemensbenefitting a structural advantage around its software centric portfolio, while weremain OW on EMR (attractive valuation for late cycle portfolio). We also remainOW Schneider Electric.
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