该报告已下架
K12 private school market growth will be affected by a low birth rate and an unfavorable regulatory environment, especially for kindergarten and compulsory education. We downgrade Wisdom and Bright Scholar to UW.
We have corrected the price target of Bright Scholar to include short-term investment into its DCF value. This article was originally published on May 11, 2021 at 09:20 PM GMT and is being republished on 28 May 2021. Pricing data and disclosures reflect original publication date. To receive an electronic copy of the original version of this publication, please send an e-mail to Equity_Research_Publishing@morganstanley.com with the publication title and date.
Kindergarten market to shrink in next 10 years with private kindergartens under margin pressure: We expect the market size of China's kindergartens will decline 3% 2021-25e CAGR after recovering from COVID in 2021, to reach Rmb288bn in 2025e. This is because of a declining school age population partially offset by an increasing gross enrollment ratio (i.e., no. of enrolled student divided by school age population) targeted by the government. Furthermore, the government target of 90% of kindergarten enrollments will be in inclusive of kindergartens by 2025 implies the number of enrollments in for-profit private kindergartens will further decline 12% CAGR in 2020-25e, pressuring margins of private kindergarten operators.
Compulsory education school market growth will slow down, senior high schools will grow steadily: In our view, growth of the K9 (compulsory education) school market will slow to 4% CAGR in 2020-25e from 6% CAGR in 2015-20, and to 2% in 2025-30e – while the senior high school market will see a steady at 8% CAGR in 2020-25e vs. 7% CAGR in 2015-20 as the high school enrollment ratio continues to improve.
相关报告
《养育男孩》读书笔记,帮助父母如何让男孩健康地成为一个男人
1.5w+
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2021-04
标签:教育、亲自、学习)
语言:中文
金额:5.9元
风靡全球的《养育女孩》,献给天下深爱女儿的父母们!《养育男孩》即将上线!
1.3w+
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2021-04
标签:亲子、教育、学习)
语言:中文
金额:5.9元
《极简父母法则》读书笔记
1.3w+
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2021-02
标签:教育、成长、父母)
语言:中文
金额:8.8元
儿童专注力培养方法
9129
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2020-11
标签:教育、自我提升、专注力)
语言:中文
金额:8.8元
高盛中国市场策略-2022市场展望:“不适”的上行空间;离岸市场重回超配
5346
类型:策略
上传时间:2021-11
标签:投行报告、中国、市场展望)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
《你就是孩子最好的玩具》读书笔记
4561
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2021-11
标签:教育、亲子、心理学)
语言:中文
金额:9.9元
迈向教育十四五
4287
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-01
标签:教育、十四五)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
不吼不叫:如何平静地让孩子与父母合作 -读书笔记
4164
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2023-03
标签:心理学、儿童心理学、教育)
语言:中文
金额:9.9元
2021年中国教育培训行业发展趋势报告
4098
类型:行研
上传时间:2021-04
标签:教育、培训)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
《全脑教养法实战指南》读书笔记
4064
类型:读书笔记
上传时间:2022-02
标签:教育、孩子、全脑教养法)
语言:中文
金额:9.9元
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元