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摩根士丹利-中国教育行业:增长缓慢,监管风险-2021.5.28-32页

# 教育 # 投行报告 大小:2.05M | 页数:32 | 上架时间:2021-06-01 | 语言:英文

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类型: 行研

上传者: XR0209

撰写机构: 摩根士丹利

出版日期: 2021-05-28

摘要:

K12 private school market growth will be affected by a low birth rate and an unfavorable regulatory environment, especially for kindergarten and compulsory education. We downgrade Wisdom and Bright Scholar to UW.

We have corrected the price target of Bright Scholar to include short-term investment into its DCF value. This article was originally published on May 11, 2021 at 09:20 PM GMT and is being republished on 28 May 2021. Pricing data and disclosures reflect original publication date. To receive an electronic copy of the original version of this publication, please send an e-mail to Equity_Research_Publishing@morganstanley.com with the publication title and date.

Kindergarten market to shrink in next 10 years with private kindergartens under margin pressure: We expect the market size of China's kindergartens will decline 3% 2021-25e CAGR after recovering from COVID in 2021, to reach Rmb288bn in 2025e. This is because of a declining school age population partially offset by an increasing gross enrollment ratio (i.e., no. of enrolled student divided by school age population) targeted by the government. Furthermore, the government target of 90% of kindergarten enrollments will be in inclusive of kindergartens by 2025 implies the number of enrollments in for-profit private kindergartens will further decline 12% CAGR in 2020-25e, pressuring margins of private kindergarten operators.

Compulsory education school market growth will slow down, senior high schools will grow steadily: In our view, growth of the K9 (compulsory education) school market will slow to 4% CAGR in 2020-25e from 6% CAGR in 2015-20, and to 2% in 2025-30e – while the senior high school market will see a steady at 8% CAGR in 2020-25e vs. 7% CAGR in 2015-20 as the high school enrollment ratio continues to improve.

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