The upheaval in the global energy sector in 2022 created renewed speculation of a “coal comeback,” but the end of coal nevertheless remains in sight. Today, nearly one-third of operating global coal capacity (580 gigawatts (GW)) has a phase out date, and much of the remaining capacity (1,400 GW) is under the purview of carbon neutrality targets. Just 5% of the global coal fleet stands beyond the scope of a national commitment—a reality nearly unthinkable a decade ago.

But the pace of the global coal phase out is not yet compatible with the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Last month, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres outlined an “Acceleration Agenda,” renewing calls for an immediate end to new coal, and for a phase out of existing coal by 2030 in developed countries and 2040 in the rest of the world. Under such a scenario, only 70% of OECD operating coal capacity is currently on pace (330 GW), and outside the OECD, only 6% of coal capacity has a known closure date before 2040 (93 GW).

In terms of new coal, while coal under development—or coal in pre-construction and construction—has collapsed by two thirds since the Paris agreement, nearly 350 GW of new capacity is still proposed across 33 countries, and an additional 192 GW of capacity is under construction. China’s pre-construction and construction capacity surpassed the rest of the world’s in 2021, and the gap widened in 2022. New coal capacity under development in China increased by 38% (266 GW to 366 GW), while the capacity in the rest of the world decreased by 20% (214 GW to 172 GW). China now accounts for two thirds (68%) of global capacity under development, up from 55% a year ago.