The Fed has kicked off discussions on tapering its balance sheet and new dot plots are indicating two hikes by the end of 2023 (FOMC announcement (Jun): Getting more confident, 16 June 2021). The outlook on rates within Asia region, however, is still quite divergent. The monetary policy narrative has shifted sharply for Korea, with policymakers setting the stage for a policy lift-off in the not-too-distant future. Even though enough is priced at the very front-end of the curve, our preference is to have long-end flatteners, which have historically correlated well with monetary policy cycles. Other than Korea, it is fair to say that market participants are unconvinced of policy normalisation elsewhere in Asia, as the still-high number of COVID-19 cases in several economies has dampened hopes of a speedy economic recovery. We are therefore still comfortable with selectively receiving rates such as in THB5yr NDIRS. The recent surge in COVID-19 cases in Indonesia could strengthen domestic banks’ bid for short-end IndoGBs to strengthen as credit growth slows further, but the conclusion is less straightforward for Malaysia, due to the possibility of another pension withdrawal scheme. In India, we close our NDOIS steepener trade idea and initiate a new trade idea to buy 10yr Gsec and pay 5yr NDOIS. With the recent expansion in the bond acquisition programme (GSAP), the central bank’s intent to anchor bond yields is clear. NDOIS is less likely to follow though, given that interbank rates are already very low in our view.
相关报告
2023年宏观经济与资产展望:利率压制缓解,经济改善可期
3028
类型:宏观
上传时间:2022-11
标签:宏观经济、资产、利率)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
高盛集团-2022年宏观展望:通往更高利率的漫长道路
2316
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-12
标签:利率、宏观展望、2022年)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
2022年上半年宏观策略展望
1486
类型:宏观
上传时间:2022-02
标签:宏观策略、2022H1)
语言:中文
金额:免费
亚太安全合作理事会-2023亚太地区安全展望(英)
1205
类型:专题
上传时间:2023-02
标签:亚太地区、安全)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
亚太地区生成式人工智能应用与监管
1172
类型:专题
上传时间:2024-02
标签:生成式人工智能、亚太地区)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
2021年债市策略:共识的盲点-20201118-招商证券-47页
1147
类型:行研
上传时间:2020-11
标签:债市策略、投资陷阱、利率)
语言:中文
金额:免费
2021年亚太地区个人金融服务调研
1094
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-11
标签:亚太地区、个人金融服务)
语言:中文
金额:5积分
《数据人才发展报告》:亚太地区数据领域创新与招聘趋势
1060
类型:专题
上传时间:2021-08
标签:数据人才、亚太地区、招聘)
语言:中文
金额:免费
My Life as a Quant Reflections on Physics and Finance《华尔街量化交易入门级教科书》
954
类型:电子书
上传时间:2020-09
标签:华尔街、定量股、利率)
语言:英文
金额:5积分
华西证券—四季度宏观经济及大类资产展望:中美同步放缓,利率再降一阶
866
类型:宏观
上传时间:2021-08
标签:宏观经济、利率)
语言:中文
金额:免费
积分充值
30积分
6.00元
90积分
18.00元
150+8积分
30.00元
340+20积分
68.00元
640+50积分
128.00元
990+70积分
198.00元
1640+140积分
328.00元
微信支付
余额支付
积分充值
应付金额:
0 元
请登录,再发表你的看法
登录/注册