Quantifying inequality and poverty in the Arab region is a challenging task, particularly as statistical capacity in the Arab region remains weak (Atamanov and others, 2020). Few countries in the region monitor changes in the incomes and expenditures of their populations. In Arab countries that do conduct such surveys, data tends to be gathered and analysed on an irregular basis. Analysts must therefore adopt alternative approaches in order to assess inequality and poverty in the region. One alternative approach is to look at multidimensional poverty in the context of an MPI framework (Alkire and Foster, 2011; Alkire and Santos, 2014). That approach relies on the use of data collated in demographic health surveys. The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) has adapted the MPI approach to take into consideration the particular nature of Arab multidimensional poverty. (Economic and Social Council for Western Asia, 2020) Unfortunately, the surveys required to compute multidimensional poverty indices are conducted on an irregular basis in the Arab region. Given the limited data available, steps must sometimes be taken to nowcast poverty indices on the basis of two non-consecutive surveys and make forecasts beyond the most recent survey conducted. 

Despite the broad assumptions made, nowcasting and forecasting approaches to computing poverty indices remain an essential exercise from a policy perspective. Even if there is uncertainty on the exact magnitude of an index, capturing at least the direction of change is essential if policymakers are to formulate successful evidence-based policies. A number of authors have proposed models to nowcast deprivation in specific dimensions such as health (Klassen and Lange, 2012). However, despite one or two notable exceptions (Ram, 2020; Alkire and others, 2020), little literature has been published to date on proposed models to nowcast multidimensional poverty.