该报告已下架
We continue to hold a bearish view on EMFX and credit. The trajectory of USD remains higher, in our view, with a shift in tone at the Fed combined with strong data amid limited positioning tilting the risks in the direction of dollar strength. At the same time, COVID-19 risks for EM remain high, with the Delta variant circulating amid relatively low vaccination rates. The impact of the latter is clear in the growing restrictions in EM and the recent softness in PMI data.
Sovereign credit – an SDR refresher: Investors have pushed back against our bearish view, citing benefits of upcoming SDR allocations. We don't disagree and argue to take risk off only gradually (see here). In terms of beneficiaries, Pakistan, Jordan, Ukraine, Ecuador and El Salvador stand out whereas improved liquidity may reduce the urgency to tie up IMF financing in the case of Argentina and Sri Lanka. We also think one should just be focused on how countries use the initial allocation rather than a potential reallocation.
Finding opportunities in credit: We look at fiscal consolidation trends in LatAm, where Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic and Ecuador are doing well whereas Chile, Panama and Colombia are lagging. With Colombia now cheaper and HY, we remove our dislike and turn neutral, but look for further weakness to turn bullish. In EMEA, we still like hydrocarbon exporters and focus on Qatar and Oman, where we see further upside on the back of ongoing fiscal consolidation and as supply risk abates. In Asia, we look at Sri Lanka, where we argue that tying up liquidity facilities is helpful but not a game-changer and investors should focus on adding risk in the belly rather than front end.
How to trade local markets: We stick to our preference for long USD positions versus COP and MXN. BRL remains a favourite in the region, but it's well owned so retracement is possible and we close our long BRL/MXN position. We keep our 5s10s flattener in UFxCAM and add a 1s10s TIIE steepener. In Asia, we remain cautious amid COVID-19 resurgence and higher oil prices and recommend trades with a bearish flavour including long SGD/IDR, long SGD/CNH, long MYR/INR, pay 5yr CNY NDIRS, pay 5yr INR NDOIS, receive 1y1y in KRW and receive 5yr MYR NDIRS vs. pay 5yr USD IRS. In CEEMEA, we think bonds in the long end in Egypt and the short end and belly in Russia offer value from a carry and roll perspective. We remain long EGYGB 2031 (FX-unhedged) and note that SAGBs can be under more pressure if UST yields rise in the next few months.
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