The transboundary haze caused by forest and land fires has been a longstanding challenge for our region. It not only impacts Indonesia, which suffers the majority of fires, but also neighbouring countries affected by the pollution and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a whole. The haze illustrates how environmental issues are not constrained by national borders. It is moreover an issue of global scale that has implications for climate change, with forest-related emissions a major component of Indonesia’s overall carbon emissions.

The challenge is faced not only by governments and communities, but also a wide range of private sector actors.

For while climate and weather can worsen conditions, the haze is driven mostly by human action. Irresponsible and exploitative behaviour can cause greater harm, whereas responsible business and sustainable practices can lessen fires and haze while providing livelihoods and profits for communities, growers and corporations.

The SIIA has studied and fostered dialogue and action on this topic for more than two decades. From 2019, we have consolidated our research and stakeholder engagement to produce an annual Haze Outlook, which provides a risk assessment of the likelihood of a severe transboundary haze incident to inform the public, private sector, and policymakers. This is the third edition of our Haze Outlook.

In this Haze Outlook 2021 Report, we note a number of factors where there have been positive developments.

In particular, we recognise the many positive steps taken by the Indonesian government and the administration of President Joko Widodo. The Indonesian President has personally emphasised the issue as a legacy for the Indonesian people, and a raft of reforms and new policies have followed to push towards meeting the challenge of forest fires and haze. Institutional commitment by key entities including the Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry and the relatively new Peat and Mangrove Restoration Agency, now in its second term, are also positive factors.

The Haze Outlook also recognises a number of concerns that have been raised. Despite national no-burning regulations, critics allege that some industrial-scale growers as well as smallholders may still be using fire to clear land and dispose of waste. In some areas, village communities are still allowed to use fire, such as in some parts of Kalimantan where the practice is deep-rooted. In addition to a risk assessment, our report also covers emerging issues surrounding sustainable land management.

The overall assessment of this Haze Outlook 2021 Report is that there is a low risk of a severe transboundary haze incident in 2021; on a scale of Green, Amber, and Red, the 2021 Haze Outlook is Green. This is the first time the risk rating has been Green, and it therefore bears some explanation.

This relatively positive risk outlook is based on three factors: weather (projected rainfall and temperature), peat (land management policies), and people (human behaviour). Projections say the 2021 dry season will see normal or average conditions, while Indonesian authorities have sent positive signals in recent months on their continued commitment to sustainability. Finally, while the price of agricultural commodities is rising, it is not yet clear that this will result in increased land clearing and burning. These result in a relatively low-risk year for the haze, but there are three important things to note about this assessment.

First, it should be emphasised that this rating is for the likelihood of a severe transboundary haze incident.

Some degree of forest and land fires is to be expected – fires occur every year regardless of conditions. But based on the analysis of this year’s Haze Outlook, a severe event – with denser smoke pollution spreading across borders, affecting Singapore and Malaysia for a prolonged period – is judged to be unlikely in the coming months.

Second, it is important to note that Indonesia is not the only country in the region that produces haze from agricultural burning. Transboundary haze has also been a problem for Thailand and the Mekong region.

However, this report focuses on transboundary haze in the southern part of ASEAN, specifically Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. For this reason, our analysis is focused on government policies and private sector practices in and concerning Indonesia, where fires and haze will affect our region the most due to proximity and prevailing wind directions.