We turn cautious as the upcycle comes to an end. China’s construction machinery demand has softened in recent months amid weak macro conditions. Although infrastructure FAI in 2H21 will likely become more supportive, we turn cautious on mid-term demand as we believe this replacement upcycle has reached its peak. For excavators, we expect 5%, -17% and -12% YoY growth for domestic demand over 2021-23. Its average fleet age has decreased to 4.9 years and 55% of these were made in the last four years at the end of 2020, a healthy level in our view. We believe tower crane sales will deliver the best growth among major construction machinery in the coming years, given its late downturn in the last cycle and proliferation of pre-fabricated construction. We believe loader and pump truck will have a much milder decline than excavator and truck crane, thanks to lower bases compared to the last peak and aged structure.