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纽约联储-大流行病时代的通货膨胀驱动因素和全球溢出(英)-2023.11

# 大流行病 # 通货膨胀 # 全球溢出 大小:2.59M | 页数:58 | 上架时间:2023-12-01 | 语言:英文

纽约联储-大流行病时代的通货膨胀驱动因素和全球溢出(英)-2023.11.pdf

纽约联储-大流行病时代的通货膨胀驱动因素和全球溢出(英)-2023.11.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: 谢文晓

撰写机构: 纽约联储

出版日期: 2023-12-01

摘要:

We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic  inflation during 2020–23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed  inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of  different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international  transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior  of the USD/EUR exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative  supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 202021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial  phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply  imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021-22. Third, the reallocation of consumption between  goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these  imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy  shocks have differential impacts on the U.S. relative to other countries’ inflation rates. Further,  complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the  quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation.

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