世界银行-现金转移的宏观经济效应：来自巴西的证据（英）-2023.12

# 现金转移 # 宏观经济效应 # 巴西大小：3.02M | 页数：57 | 上架时间：2023-12-26 | 语言：英文

世界银行-现金转移的宏观经济效应：来自巴西的证据（英）-2023.12.pdf

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世界银行-现金转移的宏观经济效应：来自巴西的证据（英）-2023.12.pdf

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类型: 宏观

上传者: 李琳琳

撰写机构: 世界银行

出版日期: 2023-12-26

摘要：

This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with R$100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated.

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