For more than a quarter century, Afghanistan’s revenues from sales of opiates—opium, morphine, and heroin—that derive from its opium poppy have helped sustain its rural populations, support its economy, and, to its detriment, fuel corruption and insurgency (Greenfield et al., 2015, citing Byrd and Mansfield, 2014). Although many policymakers have sought to end these sales, few policy analysts have considered the broad impacts of a sudden, lasting end for Afghanistan (Humphreys, Caulkins, and Felbab-Brown, 2018).

In this Perspective, we ask, “What might happen to Afghanistan if demand for its opiates dropped off sharply and permanently?” And we suggest possible answers.

More specifically, we explore the potential economic and political implications of an opiate market collapse for Afghanistan and, by extension, for ongoing foreign assistance and security interventions.