Ahead of industrial conferences and company investor meetings in the comingweeks, we provide a list of questions for US Multi-Industry management teams,andlinks to recent salient reports. Our questions tend to exclude near-term demandtopics,as we assume those are asked anyway.
Broad topics that we hope to hear more color on: (i) How quickly is demandnormalizing towards typical seasonal trends after several consecutive quarters of aboveseasonal revenue trends?(i) How much is China slowing further in the 2H (havingslowed from ~50% y-o-y growth in Q1 to ~17% growth in Q2)?(mi) On average,Mlcompanies are expecting 2H21 incremental operating margins y-o-y to reach the low20%s (vs the high 20%s in the 1H) - how conservative does this seem, as many inputcosts (inc. freight and labor) do not appear to be easing much? (iv) Did the companiesthat guided 2H op. margins down y-o-y (despite sales growth) guide too conservatively(ALLE. SWK)? (v) In A&D. are we seeing the Delta variant of Covid having any majorimpact on Aero AM demand, and is there any more clarity in Defense regarding whyseveral Ml companies are cutting sales guidance?(vi) How quickly are Resi/ Consumermarkets losing momentum y-o-y in the face of tougher 2H comps?(vi) Do we see anysign of M&A discipline re-appearing.or will very expensive M&A remain the norm (esp.in the software realm - EMR, FTV.HON,ROK.ROP are among those most likely to dosoftware M&A: see our takeaways on recent M&A)? (vili) Does anyone beyond CARR.CE, IR and ROP (such as DOV.EMR, MMM.SWK) want to sell assets amidst a marketwith exuberant bullishness. or it is better to only keep buying businesses when pricesare very high?
Who could offer interesting updates / news before Q3 earnings?(0) CFX: Could wesee another round of equity issuance to fund MedTech M&A, followed by the offsetof further Rales' share purchases? (i) EMR: Any more color on the portfolio review?(Ii) FLOW: When will we hear the outcome of the strategic review? (iv) IR: With themajor PE firm's role / holdings shrinking. does this smooth the path for a transactionwith SPX FLOW? (v) ICI: Will the Sept 8 Investor Day give investors further confidencethat the ~40% incremental margin guidance for 2022-2023, and a double-digit EPSCAGR are attainable?(vi)Lll: Any news on the choice of a new CEO?(vii) MMME: Newsflow / court pronouncements on the various major litigation items (earplugs. PFAS, BairHugger).(vii) PH: Will TDC lodge a formal bid for Meggitt by Sept 14. or will theMeggitt shareholder vote on the PH bid on Sept 21 be the near-final key step?
Main debates / positioning: () Is there any price or valuation too high for 'thematicwinners" or any price or valuation too low for 'thematic losers? (lf) Who might be thenext thematic plays, as the bar does not seem very high for joining this 'club' anymore?(i) is there a real 'changing of the guard" underway in HVAC leadership.or are we justover-extrapolating from one quarter 's results? (V) Are we on the cusp of a capex super-cycle? Shorter-term investor positioning appears least favorably disposed towards CFX.L,HON,ITW, PNR,ROK,ROP, and most favorably disposed towards CARR,DOV,ETN.FTV.ICL.NVT.
For our views on current Ml trends. please see our report. We show inside (Fig. 1) thedates of upcoming catalysts and Investor Days.
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