We have compiled questions for management teams for the back to school conference circuit and check-ins ahead of 3Q21 earnings season. Despite being a bit tardy with the report (we will also blame the labor shortage), there is still plenty to discuss, with the ships already piled up off the West Coast ahead of peak season. As noted in our recent 2Q21 review (details here), we still expect most companies would prefer a slightly looser freight market to help improve operating performance, but not so loose as to rekindle fears of the cycle peak. We don’t expect this “Goldilocks” scenario of not too tight or too loose will emerge any time soon. The combination of supply chain congestion, a tight labor market, and durable consumer spending will make for another challenging quarter as the backhalf recovery slips and could take a bite out of 2022 estimates. Rails are still margin protected by demurrage fees, which set records in 2Q21, although the STB is staying active as rail service lags, which is consistent with our post-Executive Order thesis. The bigger question for the rail group hiring back more aggressively than before is if industrial supply chains are also in enough disarray to keep volumes at disappointing levels. We expect the initial views on 2022 contract truckload rate renewals will emerge during 3Q21 earnings next month, but the bigger focus remains the price/cost spread where the LTL group appears to be the new standard bearer for inflation+ pricing with volume growth. Included in this note are specific questions categorized by topic and broad themes relevant for each of the groups in transports; see page two for a list of covered companies.
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