The Q3 Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) points to an easing in the pace of global economic growth towards the turn of the year. Confidence fell back but remains at a high level. Despite high vaccination rates in many developed countries, the prevalence of the Delta variant of Covid-19 is resulting in a degree of caution that is affecting confidence. The global orders index, which is less volatile than the confidence measure, increased marginally in the Q3 survey after strong gains in the first half. This is consistent with a moderation in the pace of growth, although this was to be expected after the post-lockdown bounce.

The two ‘fear’ indices – measured by concern that customers and suppliers may go out of business – both declined again in the Q3 survey. Indeed, both indices are now back in line with long-run averages.

This confirms that the perceived level of uncertainty about economic prospects has returned to more normal levels, at least at the global level (Chart 2).