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摩根士丹利-2022年全球宏观经济展望:通胀强劲高于全球GDP增速-2021.11.14-45页

# 2022全球宏观 # 通胀 # GDP 大小:0.81M | 页数:45 | 上传日期:2021-11-24 | 语言:英文

摩根士丹利-2022年全球宏观经济展望:通胀强劲高于全球GDP增速-2021.11.14-45页.pdf

摩根士丹利-2022年全球宏观经济展望:通胀强劲高于全球GDP增速-2021.11.14-45页.pdf

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类型: 宏观

撰写机构: 摩根士丹利

出版日期: 2021-11-14

摘要:

Inflation  overshoot with differential tails: Demand coming out of the Covid recession, boosted by stimulative policy, has confronted a sclerotic supply chain. Rising commodity prices have boosted infla-tion, but in our baseline  these prices peak then retreat, easing infla-tionary pressures. While the shock seems inherently temporary, the inflation dynamics differ substantially across countries.  In the US, we expect core PCE inflation to stay above the FOMC's 2%Y target all next year, but nevertheless move decisively lower. For the other DM countries, we see a similar pattern, and at one extreme, we see infla-tion temporarily  undershooting the target in the eurozone. In EM, we see more inflation being built in,  although  EM Asia appears more insulated. 

Growth is slowing, but not stagnating: We see global GDP growth for 2021 at 6.1%Y and stepping down to  4.7%Y in 2022; growth remains faster than potential through the end of the forecast. China is a special story, where we expect policy to reverse the recent sharp slowing, but still see medium-term growth below pre-Covid rates. 

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