Our proprietary analysis reveals that even OPEC+ is not immune to the impacts of underinvestment analyzed over the past 18 months in our Supercycle thesis. We estimate 'true’ OPEC spare capacity in 2022 will be~2.0mb/d (43%) below consensus estimates of 4.8mb/d. While we believe a 3- month pause to 400kb/d monthly increments is needed during 1H22 to balance the market (and potentially a cut pending impact of new COVID variants), the group will struggle to deliver monthly growth >250kb/d once reinstated. Our bottom-up field-by-field model reveals a total capacity shortfall extending to 3.0mb/d vs. an OPEC+ target of 49.1mb/d in 1H24. This underperformance comes at a critical juncture as other global producers falter. OPEC+ is back in the oil market driver’s seat and the Prisoner’s Dilemma is over (as we predicted in Supercycle II). However, the group's ability to control price (the steering wheel) depends on the efficacy of its spare capacity, which, at prevailing quotas, is set to fall to a 25-yr low of just 4% of total from an average of 14% (1995-2020), and well below the ~10% comfort level sought by consumers. We see LT $80/bbl Brent (real) as the marginal cost to deliver a balanced market in 2024+. Incorporating our model of OPEC+ true capacity, we expect oil to overshoot to $125/bbl in 2022 and $150/bbl in 2023 (JPM Commodities base case avg. $88/bbl 2022, $82/bbl 2023).