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国际投行报告-亚太地区金融行业-台湾地区金融:当一切恢复正常-2022.1.14-73页

# 投行报告 # 金融行业 # 台湾地区 大小:3.42M | 页数:73 | 上架时间:2022-01-28 | 语言:英文

国际投行报告-亚太地区金融行业-台湾地区金融:当一切恢复正常-2022.1.14-73页.pdf

国际投行报告-亚太地区金融行业-台湾地区金融:当一切恢复正常-2022.1.14-73页.pdf

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类型: 行研

上传者: YXM-187

撰写机构: J.P.Morgan

出版日期: 2022-01-14

摘要:

Taiwan financials outperformed TAIEX by 9%/6% in FY21/YTD. With macro and interest rate environments gradually back to normal in FY22E, we expect  underlying banking operations to show sequential improvement, while insurance  and securities earnings come off peak, but remain at decent levels. Therefore, we  see further share price upside in the coming 12 months, supported by consensus  earnings upgrades and undemanding valuations; CTBC and Cathay remain our top  picks, while we upgrade/downgrade Hua Nan/Mega to Neutral/UW and initiate  coverage on CDFHC at OW.

 Yield curve from steepening to flattening. QE tapering followed by Fed rate  hikes would lift the entire yield curve, which should steepening in 1H22 and  flattening in 2H22. Such a migration would be purely positive for banks by  leading to sequential NIM expansion; state banks like HNFHC and First would  be more leveraged to rate hikes at the group level. Impacts on life insurers  would be mixed, with improvement on recurring yields offset by a squeeze of  bond trading gains and a potential increase in hedging costs, while equity  market reactions could diverge instead of unilateral appreciation due to a  stronger USD.

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