As published this week in our 2021 economic outlook, we anticipate sharp moves down and up in global GDP growth next year as pandemic headwinds build and then fade as the year progresses. A second wave of infections is now stressing health care systems and reversing mobility gains across the Northern Hemisphere. We expect global growth to slip below trend, with the US and Europe each expected to post a quarter of contraction. But the outlook for 2021 as a whole has brightened as successful vaccine trials bolster confidence that the link between virus containment and mobility should soon be broken. We anticipate that several vaccine options will be available early next year, and look for growth to ramp up with the advent of mass vaccination beginning around midyear. Thus, we expect the global economy to expand 4.7% over the four quarters of 2021, led by mid-year bounces in the US and Europe alongside strong EM gains outside China (Figure 1).