The year is young but has already produced a significant reassessment of the global outlook, prompted in part by expectations of substantial and sustained additional US fiscal stimulus. Beyond lifting our 2021 forecasts, the combination of a more-rapid-than-expected reduction of slack, increasing optimism on virus containment, and greater confidence in commitments for sustained policy support suggests that the global economy will sustain its reflationary tilt well beyond this year. We expect the US to be in the vanguard, and we now ，forecast US nominal GDP to average roughly 7% growth over this year and next (Figure 1). In this environment the US output gap is likely to close and core inflation to return to 2% sometime next year.