Early spring, late summer

Last week we highlighted early signals of a March global growth liftoff and this week’s data delivered further support for this view. Last month’s business and consumer confidence readings posted broad-based increases and the month ended with global mobility metrics continuing to rise. March readings on US consumers and Asian exporters were strong and indications point to an outsized US employment gain in Friday’s report. In all the global economy is experiencing an early spring and we expect GDP to rise at a boomy 7% ar this quarter. While this boom phase validates our views on a powerful liftoff, we expect it to maintain, and in some cases, widen, regional (between DM and EM) and sectoral (between goods and services) growth gaps. Here, we note three unfolding dynamics.